Large deviations
A little reflection on what is happening in Japan can be triggered by a remark by Rubbia, link here.
"There is no nuclear power safe. Or low-waste production. There is a probability, that every hundred years a nuclear accident is possible, and this obviously increases with the number of power plants."
Moreover, since many natural phenomena have a long tail must be very careful not to underestimate the likelihood of catastrophic events.
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